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There is a great deal that we don’t know about COVID-19 yet, but we can look at different potential scenarios. It is quite possible that COVID-19 will be no worse than the seasonal flu and it is quite possible that COVID-19 will be as bad as the 1918 flu pandemic.

(This post was written jointly with Tornus Adstringere. He has no professional qualifications but has an extensive amateur interest in epidemiology.)

I’ve received a lot of questions over the last few days. Here are my short answers to some of those and a more detailed discussion for folks who are interested.

A few folks have asked me how COVID-19 is similar to the 1918 flu. There are two main things I’m considering when I say that: mortality and transmission.

A number of my friends and family asked me what I think is going to happen with coronavirus (COVID-19) and what we should be doing to prepare. Here are a few thoughts about what’s likely to happen and what you can do about it.